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Wednesday, February 23, 2005

The envelope, please: 'Aviator,' 'Million Dollar Baby' Oscar favorites  

The envelope, please: 'Aviator,' 'Million Dollar Baby' Oscar favorites

Ariel Ratner Yomiuri Shimbun Los Angeles Bureau

It's awards season in Hollywood and all eyes are turning to the competition for the biggest prize in town: the Oscars.

The 77th annual Academy Awards, to be presented at Hollywood's Kodak Theater on Sunday, could prove to be one of the most exciting in recent years.

While last year the overwhelming critical and commercial success of Lord of the Rings: Return of the King left the winner in many categories in little doubt, this time around the field is wide open. Much of the buzz is centered on two films, Martin Scorcese's The Aviator, which leads the pack with 11 nominations, and Clint Eastwood's late entry Million Dollar Baby. But with hits like Sideways, Ray, and Finding Neverland gathering many nominations, the competition is certain to be fierce.

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'Aviator,' 'Baby' lock horns

The contest in the Best Picture category seems to be evenly split between The Aviator and Million Dollar Baby. With its retelling of the life of film and aviation pioneer Howard Hughes, The Aviator appears to be the establishment choice for the Oscar, as evidenced by its win at the Golden Globes for Best Dramatic Picture. Scorsese's film has all the elements that the Academy loves: an epic tale about a conflicted visionary, complete with stellar performances from the likes of Leonardo DiCaprio and Cate Blachett and a touch of the magic of Hollywood's Golden Age. The Aviator's only drawback is that the film progresses along lines that can be so predictable that it sometimes veers into cliche.

Eastwood's Million Dollar Baby is anything but predictable. Its story of the encounter between female boxer Maggie Fitzgerald (Hillary Swank) and down-and-out trainer Frankie Dunn (Clint Eastwood) comes complete with a riveting plot twist that--let's just say to save it for those who haven't seen it--packs quite a punch.

The late buzz around Million Dollar Baby has been so intense that many have given its gripping personal tale a slight edge over the larger-than-life action of The Aviator.

With the competition between the two front-runners so close, watch for Alexander Payne's Sideways as an outside chance for Best Picture. The only comedy among the nominees, Sideways has won numerous awards this season, including the Golden Globes award for Best Comedic or Musical Picture.

The witty story of two middle-aged men's poignant, offbeat trip through California's wine country, Sideways may have just enough independent-minded voters to sneak through with the Oscar if The Aviator and Million Dollar Baby split the establishment vote.

The other two nominees for Best Picture, Ray, Taylor Hackford's biopic of legendary blues singer Ray Charles, and Finding Neverland, Marc Foster's real-life tale of Peter Pan author J.M. Barrie, lack the gravitas to be leading contenders, but look for their stars Jamie Foxx and Johnny Depp in the Best Actor category.

The Oscar for directing seems likewise to be toss-up between Scorsese for The Aviator and Eastwood for Million Dollar Baby. If for nothing else than to atone for years of passing him by, despite four previous nominations, Scorsese is the favorite. The conventional wisdom is that the Academy will honor Scorsese for his lifetime of achievement while skipping over Eastwood, the Golden Globe winner, because of his previous Best Director win for Unforgiven. If that happens, look for the Academy to make a split decision and hand Eastwood the Best Picture title for Million Dollar Baby. But the competition between these two is so close, that the exact opposite could happen with Eastwood winning for Best Director and Scorsese for Best Picture, just as in the Golden Globes.

Outside possibilities for Best Directing remain with Alexander Payne for Sideways, Taylor Hackford for Ray, and Mike Leigh for Vera Drake, his brilliant but small-scale drama about abortion in 1950s England.

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Foxx could achieve rare feat

In the acting categories, the consensus favorite for Best Actor is Jamie Foxx, who turns in a dead-on and scintillating performance as Ray Charles.

Foxx insisted on playing the role with prosthetics over his eyes to render him blind, and even reportedly played along on the piano perfectly through the film's incredible soundtrack (although it is only Charles' playing and voice that we actually hear). Foxx has the chance to pull off a rare victory in both the lead and supporting actor slot as he is also nominated for his supporting role in Collateral.

Other contenders for the Best Actor Oscar include Depp, whose weighty performance in Finding Neverland displayed not only his considerable talent but his tremendous range.

The Golden Globe winner, Leonardo DiCaprio, and Clint Eastwood are also in the running for their respective roles in The Aviator and Million Dollar Baby, while Don Cheadle's moving performance in Hotel Rwanda has earned him an outside but well-deserved chance at the coveted Oscar.

On the female side, the favorite for Best Actress is Hilary Swank for her role in Million Dollar Baby, which would be her second Oscar after an equally gritty performance in 1999's Boys Don't Cry. If Swank pulls through, Million Dollar Baby could conceivably sweep the four big categories if Eastwood captures the award for Best Acting, Directing, and Best Picture.

Such a sweep hasn't happened since 1991's The Silence of the Lambs and would be quite an accomplishment considering the tough competition in all categories. Swank's biggest competition may come from Kate Winslet for her quirky role in Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind, a performance that has earned her critical acclaim and increased her already devoted following. Annette Bening's performance in Being Julia is also a close contender for the Oscar, with lesser-knowns Catalina Sandino Moreno for Maria Full of Grace and Imelda Staunton for Vera Drake rounding out the nominees.

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Controversial films left out

More than most years, this year's Oscars may come to be remembered as much for those films that weren't nominated as for those that were.

The year's two most talked-about films were easily Mel Gibson's The Passion of the Christ and Michael Moore's Fahrenheit 9/11, both of which not only racked up significant box office totals, but came to symbolize the cultural divide in the United States during last year's presidential election.

Moore's film, the highest-grossing documentary ever, was shut out of the Oscar race after he chose not to submit it for consideration for Best Documentary Feature. (Moore hoped to show the movie on TV, an Oscar violation, in order to give it the widest possible audience before the election.) Gibson's movie, one of Hollywood's highest grossing ever, received nominations for both cinematography and makeup but was passed over in the higher profile categories.

Despite these snubs, considering the success that both Gibson and Moore have experienced over the past year, not to mention the passions they have aroused, it is difficult to imagine them getting too worked up about the lack of nominations. (They are both previous Oscar winners.)

In terms of the ceremony itself, the Oscars are sure to have all the spectacle of years past. Many are eagerly awaiting the performance of first-time Oscar host Chris Rock.

Rock, one of Hollywood's best-known African-American comedians and a superstar among the MTV crowd, has an edgy humor that is side-splitting and often quite racy, making him an intriguing and potentially risky choice to follow last year's host, perennial favorite Billy Crystal.

And of course, fans everywhere will tune in to watch the fashion gurus dissect the latest trends on the Red Carpet as the stars come dressed in their finest for ceremony and the legendary parties afterward. A good time will hopefully be had by them, and by the rest of us, watching from the comfort of our living rooms.

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